The Halving of Bitcoin: A Catalyst for Optimism and Uncertainty


Contributing to this optimistic outlook is the highly anticipated event known as “the halving” of Bitcoin. This event, which occurs every four years, involves the algorithmically programmed reduction of Bitcoin’s token supply by half. As a limited asset, this halving mechanism has a significant impact on the value of Bitcoin.

Antoni Trenchev, the co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, believes that the halving in 2024 will be a pivotal moment for Bitcoin enthusiasts. He suggests that historical trends indicate that the peak of Bitcoin may not occur until 2025, with the year 2024 serving as a prelude to the main event. Trenchev speculates that Bitcoin could surge even further from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, thanks to a “double turbo boost” from the anticipated approval of a spot ETF and the halving event expected in the spring. However, he cautions that the road to $100,000 will still be riddled with unexpected obstacles and price drops, echoing the famous Warren Buffett quote, “Transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”

Another noted supporter of Bitcoin, Anthony Scaramucci, the creator of SkyBridge Capital, takes a more bullish stance on the cryptocurrency’s future. He predicts that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $140,000 by the end of the year, according to digital media site Semafor. Scaramucci warns that if miners, who rely on transaction fees to sustain their operations, do not see a return on their investment, they may choose to cease their activities. This scenario would be catastrophic for the Bitcoin network.

Envisioning a future where major wealth managers in China and the West own 100% of the circulating Bitcoins, Hayes contemplates the consequences of such consolidation. This situation arises due to the widespread belief that money is a store of value. Instead of acquiring Bitcoin directly and storing it in self-custodial wallets, people opt for Bitcoin ETF derivatives, making a small number of corporations control the entire Bitcoin supply. Subsequently, these entities would see no practical purpose in using the Bitcoin network, causing the price of Bitcoin to stagnate indefinitely. As a result, miners might shut down their operations due to financial constraints arising from the rising cost of electricity. In this grim scenario, Hayes firmly declares, “Goodbye, Bitcoin!” suggesting that Bitcoin is thoroughly destructible.

Prompted by the fear of a potential crisis surrounding Bitcoin, Hayes speculates on the future of cryptocurrencies as a whole. He proposes that Bitcoin’s “death” could pave the way for the emergence of a new crypto-monetary network, whether it be an upgraded version of Bitcoin itself or an entirely novel entity. The involvement of powerful players from Wall Street, along with impending regulations, could lead to a dramatic shift in the crypto market in 2024. However, Hayes believes that this signifies the beginning of the end for Bitcoin, as regulations could impede its usage and transform it into just another financial asset controlled by the state. In the event of a Bitcoin crash, a new decentralized financial system could rise to prominence, allowing people to reclaim ownership of a medium of exchange.

Despite the notion that the best moment to invest in Bitcoin has already passed, Hayes emphasizes that the second-best time is now. This highlights the growing recognition in the investment world of cryptocurrencies’ value as a hedge against the depreciation of fiat currencies. Nouriel Roubini, a prominent critic of cryptocurrencies, has faced public insults from Hayes, who refers to him as a “talentless crook clown.” Hayes dismisses Roubini’s views on “flatcoins” and suggests that these critiques are simply attempts to divert attention away from the significant potential of cryptocurrencies.

In conclusion, the halving of Bitcoin and its impact on the cryptocurrency’s value creates an atmosphere of optimism among Bitcoin enthusiasts. The halving event, coupled with potential spot ETF approval, has the potential to propel Bitcoin to new heights. However, concerns about the concentration of ownership and regulatory pressures raise questions about the long-term viability of Bitcoin. Nonetheless, the belief in the transformative power of cryptocurrencies remains strong, with the hope that a decentralized financial system will ultimately prevail.